Possible scenario
Recovery Continues Gradually
55% Chance
The most likely path is that Pope Leo XIV’s public greeting signals a stable early recovery after lung surgery. The Vatican maintains a cautious schedule while emphasizing continuity in papal authority and daily governance.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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