Possible scenario
Health Setback Emerges
15% Chance
A relapse, infection, or post-surgical complication could force another hospitalization. This would intensify scrutiny of the pope’s prognosis and revive questions about continuity after a papacy that began only in May 2025.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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