Possible scenario
Negotiated Maritime Pause
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and European intermediaries broker a limited deconfliction channel focused on tanker safety rather than a full political settlement. The U.S. keeps pressure on Iranian exports, but both sides accept mechanisms to prevent accidental escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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