Possible scenario
Hormuz Disruption Widens
28% Chance
Iran escalates beyond harassment, using mines, anti-ship missiles, and drones to interrupt commercial navigation for short periods. The U.S. expands strike packages against IRGC Navy assets, but neither side immediately declares full-scale war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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