Possible scenario
Contained Naval Attrition
42% Chance
The United States sustains the blockade and convoy operations while limiting strikes to IRGC launch sites, radars, and mine-laying units. Iran continues harassment and occasional missile or drone fire, but both sides avoid a decisive attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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