Possible scenario
Renewed Disruption
18% Chance
A fresh attack or sabotage incident again disrupts the East-West Pipeline shortly after the apparent recovery. This is less likely than stabilization but remains plausible given the recent sequence of attacks and the strategic importance of the Hormuz bypass route.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.