Possible scenario
Fragile Operations Persist
25% Chance
Flows remain materially improved but the system does not operate smoothly at peak utilization. Security checks, repairs, or pressure management leave the market uncertain about whether 5.5 million bpd can be sustained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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