Possible scenario
Flows Stabilize
45% Chance
Saudi Arabia keeps the East-West Pipeline operating close to the newly reported 5.5 million barrels per day level. This is the base case because flows have now recovered in stages from 3.5 million bpd to near high utilization, suggesting repairs, security, and operating logistics are functioning.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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