Possible scenario
Phased Reserve Purchases
45% Chance
The White House uses cleared legal authority to add Bitcoin gradually rather than shock the market with a large one-time purchase. Treasury and the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve working group prioritize custody, audit controls, and budget-neutral acquisition methods.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.7%
- Technology +0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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