Possible scenario
Weakness Signal Dominates
20% Chance
Investors interpret the unusually large liquidity operation as evidence that funding demand and the real economy are weaker than officials have acknowledged. The focus shifts back to the weakest growth pace since 2022, soft property activity, and limited private-sector credit demand.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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