Possible scenario
Prolonged Fertilizer Freeze
40% Chance
The most likely path is that fertilizer cargoes remain effectively blocked while Iran holds the Strait closed for leverage and insurers refuse to cover Gulf sailings. Importers such as India, Brazil, Pakistan, and East African buyers are forced to draw inventories, delay tenders, and bid up non-Gulf supply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +2.0%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -1.3%
- Energy +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
- NTR+3.2%
- MOS+2.5%
- CF+1.9%
- ADM-0.4%
- BG-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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