Possible scenario
Warnings Restored, War Normalizes
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the restored US ballistic-missile warning feed remains in place and the recent lapse is treated as a technical failure rather than a policy rupture. Russia continues periodic attacks on Kyiv's power infrastructure, but the episode does not materially change US support or market assumptions about the war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- RTX-0.1%
- -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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