Possible scenario
US-Ukraine Friction Returns
17% Chance
A less likely but plausible outcome is that Ukraine remains unconvinced by the US explanation and demands more formal guarantees on warning data. The dispute does not end US aid, but it adds political uncertainty around intelligence-sharing and congressional oversight.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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