Possible scenario
Europe Hardens Alone
15%
−0.2%
European governments conclude that Washington is becoming less reliable on Russia policy and accelerate independent Ukraine funding and procurement. This outcome is less likely in the immediate aftermath, but it is realistic given prior European alarm over Vance’s Ukraine skepticism.
What it moves
- Industrials+0.8%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
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