Possible scenario
Legal Track Dominates
25% Chance
The UK prioritizes prosecution of the five arrested suspects and avoids releasing sensitive intelligence beyond controlled briefings. Iran continues to deny involvement, but the dispute shifts from headline escalation to courts, sanctions compliance, and intelligence liaison.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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