Possible scenario
Gray-Zone Retaliation
20% Chance
Iran rejects the allegations publicly while IRGC-linked networks increase cyber, surveillance, or proxy pressure on UK and US interests. This is less likely than diplomatic containment but plausible given the accusation that Tehran directed a plot on British soil.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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