Possible scenario
Allies Hold Line
45% Chance
London and Washington treat Iran's false-flag claim as expected denial rather than a substantive rebuttal. The most likely path is further intelligence briefings, targeted designations, and coordination with European and Gulf partners without an immediate military response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Energy +0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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