Possible scenario
Localized Attrition Continues
45% Chance
Russia keeps striking Kyiv’s power and telecom nodes, but the attacks remain within the established pattern of infrastructure attrition. Ukrainian repair crews and mobile operators restore most service within days, while civilian casualties and rolling outages continue.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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