Possible scenario
Security Escalation
18% Chance
The LNG blockade becomes a broader military-security crisis as Iran-linked forces or Iranian assets challenge maritime traffic near Hormuz. Even limited clashes would raise energy prices and financial-market volatility because the strait is central to both LNG and crude flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.2%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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