Possible scenario
Prolonged LNG Blockade
42% Chance
The most likely path is that Qatar remains unable to restore normal LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping production curtailed and fiscal revenues under pressure. Iran-linked drone and maritime threats continue to deter insurers, shippers and buyers despite diplomatic efforts.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Utilities -0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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