Possible scenario
Negotiated Maritime Corridor
28% Chance
Diplomatic pressure from LNG buyers in Asia and Europe produces a security arrangement for Qatari cargoes. The reopening is partial at first, but it signals that the worst disruption to LNG flows may be easing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.