Possible scenario
Waters Holds Post
45% Chance
Maxine Waters uses Josh Gottheimer and Ayanna Pressley to show she can bridge the caucus’s moderate and progressive wings. The most likely outcome is that enough Democrats decide continuity is safer than a public fight over seniority and age.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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