Possible scenario
Short Delay Deal
42% Chance
Andy Burnham accepts a limited delay to close the social care funding gap while preserving the core promise of a national care service. This is the most likely path because recent pledges to avoid borrowing and scrap the triple lock narrow his options, making a short procedural pause more plausible than outright abandonment.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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