Possible scenario
Scaled-Back Plan
24% Chance
The funding gap proves too large to bridge without breaking Burnham's no-borrowing pledge, so the national care plan is materially reduced. This scenario is realistic because scrapping the triple lock and proposing new taxes may still not fully cover long-term care costs.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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