Possible scenario
GOP Vote Cannibalization
18% Chance
The higher Republican mail share proves to be a timing shift rather than a net turnout expansion. Republicans bank more ballots earlier, but their Election Day pool shrinks, limiting the strategic value of the Clark County mail-vote milestone.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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