Possible scenario
GOP Mail Gains Persist
42% Chance
Republicans maintain their unusually high Clark County mail-ballot share through the next week of ballot returns. The most likely implication is that Trump-aligned messaging has reduced the party’s historic aversion to mail voting and weakened a key Democratic advantage in Nevada’s largest county.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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