Possible scenario
Deployment Proceeds Contained
45% Chance
Pyongyang and Moscow follow through on the troop transfer, but Russia uses most North Korean personnel for rear security, engineering, logistics, and attrition-heavy infantry support inside Ukraine. The escalation is serious but remains geographically contained, limiting the immediate cross-asset market shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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