Possible scenario
Competitive Status Quo
30% Chance
The Harris +10.4 electorate estimate holds, but district-level patterns remain uneven. Democrats retain an advantage in the statewide environment while Republicans keep the race close enough through candidate quality, local issues, and differential turnout.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.