Possible scenario
Disruption Persists
38% Chance
The most likely path is that the September collapse proves more than a one-month statistical anomaly. Ukrainian strikes, higher war-risk insurance, and weak confidence in Black Sea loading schedules keep Russian sunflower oil exports far below normal through October.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.5%
Tickers
- BG+1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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