Possible scenario
Targeted Flight Restrictions
18% Chance
Israel chooses a more restrictive approach, limiting flights or imposing extra checks until pre-arrival screening is operational. This would directly affect Gulf-Israel travel capacity but still remain a sector-specific aviation event.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.4%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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