Possible scenario
Waiver Is Scrapped
20% Chance
Political costs rise enough that Trump abandons or suspends the waiver, either to preserve Republican unity or to avoid a broader fight over Ukraine policy. Diesel-shortage concerns return quickly, especially for Europe and import-dependent markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Industrials -0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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