Possible scenario
Diesel Deal Survives
45% Chance
Trump holds the sanctions waiver in place, arguing the Russian diesel release is needed to ease refined-product shortages and support his energy ceasefire framework. Pence and hawkish Republicans criticize the deal, but they fail to assemble enough immediate leverage to force a reversal.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- VLO-1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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