Possible scenario
Deal Gets Rewritten
25% Chance
Republican resistance led by Pence and Ukraine hawks does not kill the diesel deal, but it forces the administration to tighten the waiver. The revised arrangement keeps some Russian diesel flowing while reducing volumes, duration, or eligible buyers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
- FDX-0.2%
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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