Possible scenario
Limited Iranian Pressure
25% Chance
Iran treats the allegation as justification for another limited strike campaign against Iranian Kurdish opposition groups in Iraqi Kurdistan. Tehran avoids direct attacks on Iraqi federal forces, Ukrainian personnel, or major energy infrastructure, keeping the escalation bounded.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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