Possible scenario
Evidence Dispute Escalates
18% Chance
Iran or affiliated media publish purported imagery, intercepted communications, or detainee statements alleging a Ukrainian or Kurdish drone presence in northern Iraq. Ukraine, the KRG, and Baghdad challenge the evidence, but the claims become harder for regional actors to ignore.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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