Possible scenario
Denials Hold
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Ukraine, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and Baghdad keep denying the claim while no verifiable evidence of thousands of drones emerges. Iran continues public warnings, but the dispute stays in the information and diplomatic domain.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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