Possible scenario
Prolonged Riyadh Disruption
30% Chance
Missile and drone threats continue to disrupt Riyadh aviation without producing a decisive military or diplomatic outcome. Airlines maintain cancellations and reroutings, while Saudi air defenses remain on alert and insurers reassess Gulf flight risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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