Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
20% Chance
Oman, the UN, and possibly US intermediaries revive the cease-fire channel that has periodically contained Saudi-Houthi violence since 2022. Both sides have incentives to prevent airport disruption from becoming a broader war, especially if humanitarian access can be separated from military claims.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.2%
- Energy -0.9%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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