Possible scenario
War Risk Repriced
27% Chance
The attack on press coverage is read as a sign that damaging Iran-war information is still emerging. Investors focus less on media freedom and more on whether the United States is drifting toward a longer regional campaign.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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