Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
19% Chance
Backchannel diplomacy limits the crisis after Moscow denies intent and intermediaries press for clearer Black Sea deconfliction procedures. NATO keeps some added deployments in place, but the immediate market stress fades if there are no additional strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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