Possible scenario
Maritime Escalation Spreads
25% Chance
Iran and allied militias avoid a direct declaration of war but raise costs through Red Sea, Gulf of Oman, and proxy pressure. Saudi Arabia and the UAE press Washington to hold the line, while shipping insurers and energy traders reprice regional risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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