Possible scenario
De-Escalation Deal Emerges
20% Chance
Washington concludes that blockade risks are rising faster than negotiating leverage and offers a phased off-ramp. Saudi Arabia and the UAE publicly support enforcement but quietly accept a narrower deal that constrains enrichment and missile transfers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.1%
- Consumer Services +2.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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