Possible scenario
Blockade Forces Talks
40% Chance
Trump keeps the maritime and financial pressure campaign in place, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE arguing that only sustained coercion will bring Tehran back to the table. Iran avoids a direct clash while using Oman, Qatar, and Switzerland to explore a narrower uranium and sanctions framework.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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