Scenario description
Assume the European Central Bank does not raise its main policy rates, but it implements or formally announces an operational tightening of euro-area monetary conditions through liquidity or balance-sheet channels before or on 2026-11-15. Qualifying actions could include accelerating asset-portfolio runoff, reducing or ending reinvestments earlier than previously scheduled, tightening targeted lending terms, or another ECB operational measure that drains liquidity or makes central-bank funding materially less accommodative. The exact balance-sheet amount, maturity profile, and affected programme are not assumed unless reported.