Possible scenario
Trade Frictions Return
18% Chance
A renewed dispute over tariff terms, export licenses, or broader U.S.-China trade compliance slows negotiations. The September truce remains in place, but buyers hesitate to lock in new U.S. LNG volumes until policy risk is clearer.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
- VG-4.0%
- LNG-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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