Possible scenario
Putin Sends Delegate
30% Chance
Putin declines to travel to the United States and sends Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov or another senior official. Moscow preserves its G20 seat while avoiding the security, sanctions and ICC-related optics of a Putin visit.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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