Possible scenario
Allied Pushback Grows
20% Chance
U.S. allies object to a Putin visit because of the ICC arrest warrant and the unresolved war in Ukraine. Washington tries to preserve G20 inclusivity while reassuring Kyiv, Brussels, London and Ottawa that sanctions policy has not changed.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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