Possible scenario
Sustained Airport Campaign
25% Chance
The Houthis continue targeting Saudi aviation and fuel infrastructure to demonstrate reach into the kingdom. Riyadh faces higher air-defense costs, temporary travel disruptions, and pressure to retaliate more forcefully.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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