Possible scenario
Iran-Saudi Escalation
20% Chance
Saudi intelligence publicly links the attack to Iranian-supplied systems or advisers, raising the risk of direct retaliation beyond Yemen. This scenario is less likely than a contained response but plausible given the recent pattern of Iranian-linked Houthi advances.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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