Possible scenario
Contained Saudi Response
35% Chance
Saudi Arabia responds with calibrated strikes on Houthi launch infrastructure in Yemen while avoiding direct attacks on Iran. This is the most likely path because Riyadh has strong incentives to restore deterrence without triggering a full regional conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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